Q&A 1: Sea Level Rise PDF Print E-mail


Question

Just out of interest, where did you get your figure for sea level rise of less than 1mm per year? The most conservative estimate that I have seen is 1.8mm per year, as mentioned by Ian Plimer. Most estimates I have seen talk about 3mm per year.

 

Matthew Nott

 


Answer

About a mm per year is my personal forecast, not one that I have read. Ian Plimer has so many conflicting thoughts and data on sea level rise (and nearly everything else), I found his Heaven and Earth thought provoking but disappointing in terms of what I could learn from his conclusions. He gave a figure of 1.8 mm/yr during the period 1900 to 1980. (I don't understand why the sea level should have increased dramatically during the 1998 el Nino peak as some experts claim.)


Because I interpret the Hadley Met office data as showing a cooling trend, and based on sea level rise being associated with temp increase, I expect a further decrease in rate of sea level rise in the next 10 or 20 years. I wanted to make a clear distinction between MY forecast and Al Gore's extreme prediction of massive increases which is uppermost in the public mind.

Rob  High